Cloudy And Colder Today 2/15/14
Tuesday Weather Update
Greg Morgan Ė Chief Meteorologist
Foggy conditions exist for a large part of the Permian Basin this morning. A cold front will slide south into the area through the day. As the front moves through, expect the winds to shift to the north and increase (10-20mph). This will effectively mix out the fog. There is a chance of rain across the eastern and southeastern Permian Basin today. The cold front mentioned above will slowly work its way into the Concho Valley and the Texas Hill Country. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be warm enough to produce an unstable atmosphere and as a result, a few thunderstorms arenít even out of the question. Expect highs in the 40ís and 50ís across the region today. A few locations across the southern part of the area could hit highs in the 60ís as the front becomes stationary and doesnít move all the way through the region.
A second wave of upper level energy will move over the region tonight. Computer models are insistent on rain and even freezing rain developing. However, I have my doubts that this will occur to the degree models suggest. First, the upper level wind flow is out of the southwest, pumping Pacific moisture into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This pattern tends to leave a rather warm pocket of air in the mid-levels. The other issue I have is the recent warm pattern. Temperatures have been elevated in recent weeks and as such, the earthís surface remains warm. These factors will be difficult to overcome. Even taking the coldest possible solution, I canít see frozen precipitation making it any further west or south than Big SpringÖ And that will be a stretch. All in all, I canít see anything more than some light rain developing. Temperatures will briefly drop to around freezing but will likely stay above levels that would give me concern relating to icy roads. We will continue to monitor the latest progress of the storm and provide needed updates.
Cold conditions are expected on Thursday morning. However, Iím not expecting that to last. Highs will top out in the 70ís both Thursday and again on Friday.